2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (2023)

The nominees for Best Picture at the 95th Academy Awards have been revealed, and it is certainly a race for the ages. The nominees seem to stretch a wide array of genres and styles, reflecting the diverse art form of the movies ranging from massive blockbusters to smaller character studies, biopics, and major festival winners. The lineup for Best Picture is one of the strongest of any ceremonies, but only one can win Best Picture.

With that in mind, which films have the best chance of winning? There are literal betting odds in Vegas and elsewhere, and if you're in a gambling mood or just want to bet against yourself, we've determined the odds. Factoring in previous Oscar winners, voting trends, the number of nominations, and knowing that the Best Picture voting is determined by rank choice ballot which could shift the tide in a film's favor, take a look at the ten films nominated for Best Picture at the 2023 Academy Awards. See which films have the best shot of walking away with the top prize of the night, ranked from least to most likely (along with their betting odds calculated by Covers).

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10 Women Talking (+6,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (1)

Women Talking garnered a lot of critical acclaim when it premiered at the Telluride Film Festival, and many expected it to be a bigger player at the Academy Awards. Sadly the movie only received two nominations, with the only other nomination besides Best Picture being Best Adapted Screenplay. With an Oscar snub for Sarah Polley for Best Director, and the movie being the Best Picture nominee with the least nominations, Women Talking has the biggest uphill battle to win Best Picture.

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9 Triangle of Sadness (+10,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (2)

Triangle of Sadness is the biggest surprise of the Best Picture nominees, even though it shouldn't be, given the film received a standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Palme d'Or. The movie received three Academy Award nominations including Best Director and Best Original Screenplay.

Yet with no acting nominations, and the surprising snub of Dolly de Leon who appeared as a supporting actress front-runner, the movie may have a hard time securing the Best Picture win. The film is also a satirical dark comedy with some genuinely gross scenes, and that can be a polarizing film for some voters.

8 Avatar: The Way of Water (+8,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (3)

Avatar: The Way of Water is the biggest movie of 2022 at the worldwide box office, having grossed $2 billion as of this writing. Just like the first Avatar, Avatar: The Way of Water was seen as both a big blockbuster and an Oscar contender, and the sequel certainly delivered, earning four nominations.

Yet the movie did not land a Best Director for James Cameron and earned five nominations less than its predecessor, which may indicate that Oscar voters liked Avatar: The Way of Water, but not as much as the previous film. There is also the fact that the movie is less stand-alone than the previous film, with a major sequel set-up, and Oscar voters may not want to choose what they see as half of a story and would rather wait to see how Avatar 3 turns out.

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7 All Quiet on the Western Front (+3,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (4)

All Quiet on the Western Front made a big splash at the 95th Academy Award nominations, earning nine nominations. The German adaptation of the popular book of the same name, the film has garnered a great deal of critical praise as a grim portrait of war's reality, and its status as an adaptation of a literary classic gives it a good chance.

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Yet the film is nominated for Best International Film as well, and while Parasite was able to secure both awards, there is a chance Oscar voters may decide if they vote for it in the Best International Film category they may rank it lower in Best Picture. It could still go the distance, but its chances are slightly lowered.

6 Elvis (+10,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (5)

Elvis certainly is not a better movie than Woman Talking, Avatar: The Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front, or Triangle of Sadness. Yet what Elvis certainly has going for it is the cross-generational appeal to many members of the Academy voters. It is a big, sprawling musical biopic about one of the most popular musicians of all time, a box office hit that seems to have been enjoyed by various age groups at the Academy Award. With eight nominations and a strong showing for star Austin Butler, Elvis has risen up as a potential Best Picture winner.

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5 Tár (+3,500)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (6)

Tár has a strong chance of winning Best Picture, just off the strength of star Cate Blanchett and director Todd Field, both of whom scored nominations for Best Actress and Best Director respectively. The story is very much a movie that will connect with awards voters, a deep intimate character study about an artist that also grapples with their own demons. If Tár has anything going against it though, it might be a little more niche for some voters.

4 The Banshees of Inisherin (+225)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (7)

The Banshees of Inisherin tied with All Quiet on the Western Front with the second most nominations of any movie at the Academy Awards, with nine nominations including Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and a whopping four acting nominations. This makes it a clear favorite among Academy voters, but the question is — is it anybody's top favorite?

Related: Biggest Oscar Nomination Snubs of 2023

While the movie has a great deal of critical praise and of the nominated films the one with the best Rotten Tomatoes score, the film's awards buzz has slowed down a bit. It scored plenty of nominations but is also in some competitive categories where it might have a lot of nominations but not enough to win the top spot. However, it could also be a surprise winner, as it being both nobody's top pick but also nobody's bottom pick could help it in the ranked-choice ballot.

3 Top Gun: Maverick (+1,000)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (8)
(Video) Predicting the 2023 Oscar Nominees

Top Gun: Maverick was the biggest surprise of 2022, the rare blockbuster film that was both a massive hit with critics and audiences and currently stands as the highest-grossing movie of 2022 at the domestic box office. Top Gun: Maverick connected with audiences across a wide age range which makes it a possible favorite among many voters at the Academy Awards both young and old.

This can go one of two ways, either being the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King where the big blockbuster also goes on to win Best Picture, or Mad Max: Fury Road where the critically acclaimed action film does not win Best Picture but has the honor of being nominated.

2 The Fabelmans (+1,100)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (9)

The Fabelmans has been a favorite among critics and members of the Academy since it first premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2022. A semi-autobiographical film about legendary filmmaker Steven Spielberg makes it an easy favorite among Oscar voters. Being both a movie about making movies and a small personal family drama makes it fit many of the boxes that people expect and want from the Best Picture winner. The Fabelmans also won the Best Drama Motion Picture award at the Golden Globes.

1 Everything Everywhere All at Once (-165)

2023 Best Picture Nominees, Ranked by Most Likely to Win (10)

Talk about the little film that could. When Everything Everywhere All At Once opened in theaters back in March 2022, the film received overwhelming critical praise and went on to become the highest-grossing movie for A24, but even then people thought the movie might be too weird for Oscar voters to go all the way. Now Everything Everywhere All At Once scored 11 nominations, more than any other film nominated this year, and is the odds on favorite to win Best Picture.

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It has secured nominations in the most coveted categories including Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress, and it is basically a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan. Now EverythingEverywhere All At Once is the front-runner for Best Picture, and it honestly seems like a movie that has connected with various members of the Academy, and stands a good shot of winning the coveted award.

FAQs

Who will win best picture 2023? ›

Best Picture Contenders
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once. Best Picture (or equivalent) wins: NBR (Top 10), AFI Movies of the Year, LAFCA (tie), Critics Choice. ...
  • The Banshees of Inisherin. ...
  • The Fabelmans. ...
  • Tár. ...
  • Triangle of Sadness. ...
  • Elvis. ...
  • All Quiet on the Western Front. ...
  • Women Talking.
23 hours ago

Who are the 2023 Oscar nominees? ›

95th Academy Awards

What movies are nominated for Best Picture 2023? ›

In addition to receiving a nomination for best picture, the stars of “Everything Everywhere” received acting nominations. “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “All Quiet on the Western Front” received nine nominations each and were also recognized for best picture.

Who is nominated for Best Actor Oscar 2023? ›

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actor

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The best actor race is comprised of all first-time nominees — Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) and Bill Nighy (“Living”).

What is the shortest Best Picture winner? ›

Marty (1955) was the shortest Best Picture winner at 91 minutes (1 hour, 31 minutes), followed by Annie Hall (1977) at 93 minutes. The shortest Best Picture nominee was Mae West's She Done Him Wrong (1933) at 66 minutes.

What is the longest movie to win Best Picture? ›

1. 'Gone with the Wind' (1940) – 233 minutes.

Who is the youngest Oscar nominee? ›

As of March 2022, the all-time youngest Academy Award nominee in an acting category was Justin Henry, who was just eight years old when he was nominated for his role as Billy in "Kramer vs Kramer" (1979).

Who is the oldest person to be nominated for an Oscar? ›

90: Age of John Williams, nominated for best original score for “The Fabelmans.” The composer's latest nomination makes him the oldest person ever to be nominated for a competitive Oscar.

Where can I watch 2023 Oscar contenders? ›

Wondering how to watch the 2023 Oscar nominees and nominees online? You're in luck. Most are available to stream on services like HBO Max, Disney+, and Netflix, and others are available to rent on platforms including Amazon Prime Video and Vudu.

What are the only 3 films to win the Big 5 Oscars? ›

In the past 90 years, only three films, It Happened One Night (1934), One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975) and The Silence of the Lambs (1991) have won all five Oscars from the forty-three films that secured nominations in all five prestige Academy Award categories.

What were the last 5 movies to win Best Picture at the Oscars? ›

Oscars: 30-Plus Years Of Best Picture Winners In Photos
  • 2021 – CODA. CODA, Troy Kotsur, 2021. ...
  • 2020 – Nomadland. Nomadland. ...
  • 2019 – Parasite. Parasite. ...
  • 2018 – Green Book. Editorial use only. ...
  • 2017 – The Shape of Water. Photo : A24.
  • 2016 – Moonlight. ...
  • 2015 – Spotlight. ...
  • 2014 – Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Mar 23, 2022

What movie is nominated for Best Picture? ›

Best Picture
  • “Avatar: The Way of Water”
  • “Elvis”
  • “The Fabelmans”
  • “Tár”
  • “Top Gun: Maverick”
  • “Triangle of Sadness”
  • “Women Talking”
1 day ago

Who is the only actor to win 3 Best Actor Oscars? ›

Six have won exactly three acting Academy Awards: Daniel Day-Lewis (three Best Actor awards), Frances McDormand (three Best Actress awards), Meryl Streep (two Best Actress awards and one Best Supporting Actress award), Jack Nicholson (two Best Actor awards and one Best Supporting Actor award), Ingrid Bergman (two Best ...

Who is the Best Actor in the world? ›

Empire's 50 Greatest Actors Of All Time List, Revealed
  • Denzel Washington. ...
  • Tom Hanks. ...
  • Marilyn Monroe. ...
  • Robert De Niro. ...
  • Bette Davis. ...
  • Natalie Portman. ...
  • Heath Ledger. ...
  • Katharine Hepburn.
Dec 20, 2022

Who is the 3 time Oscar winner who is also the most nominated male actor in the Academy history? ›

Who is the most Oscar-nominated actor? Jack Nicholson, star of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975), The Shining (1980) and Batman (1989), has received 12 Academy Award nominations and three wins, making him the most nominated male actor ever.

What female actress has received the most nominations? ›

A three-time Oscar winner, Meryl Streep holds the record for the most nominations in the acting categories, with a total of 21.

Which actor actress had the shortest amount of screen time in an Oscar winning role? ›

The first actor to do so was Gloria Grahame, who won Best Supporting Actress for her role as Rosemary in Vincente Minnelli's The Bad and the Beautiful. Grahame appeared on screen for just nine minutes and 32 seconds.

What is the longest ever movie? ›

Guinness World Records says the longest film ever made is "The Cure for Insomnia" released in 1987. The 85-hour experimental film was directed by John Henry Timmis IV.

Has anyone ever been stripped of an Oscar? ›

In fact, though there are those who have rejected their Oscars (Marlon Brando, Dudley Nichols), only one award has ever been revoked in Academy history — the 1969 prize for Best Documentary, which was given to Young Americans before it was determined that the film was released in 1967 and therefore ineligible.

Has a Netflix film ever won Best Picture? ›

Netflix broke into the Best Picture race for the first time with 2018's Roma and has since added six more titles to that coveted list of nominees, but has so far failed to secure a win, though Apple TV+ broke the barrier this year, becoming the first streaming service to take home Best Picture for CODA despite Netflix ...

Who is the oldest Oscar winner? ›

Anthony Hopkins (83) — 'The Father' (2020)

In 2021, Anthony Hopkins became the oldest person to ever win an acting Oscar for his devastating performance as an elderly man struggling with dementia.

Has anyone refused an Oscar? ›

Sacheen Littlefeather had only 60 seconds to speak at the 1973 Academy Awards. In her brief speech, she refused the Oscar for best actor on behalf of Marlon Brando, faced a mixture of loud boos and cheers, and defended the rights of Native Americans on national TV.

Can a 12 year old win an Oscar? ›

As of 2022, a total of three minors (including Duke) have won Oscars, all in the Best Supporting Actress category. The other two are Tatum O'Neal, who was 10, for Paper Moon (1973), and Anna Paquin, who was 11, for The Piano (1993).

Who turned down an Oscar first? ›

Dudley Nichols - 1935 Oscar for Best Screenplay

The first person to reject an Oscar was screenwriter Dudley Nichols, who won for Best Screenplay for the 1935 film, 'The Informer'.

Who was the youngest child to win an Oscar? ›

The youngest ever Oscar winner is actress Tatum O'Neal who was only 10 years old when she won Best Supporting Actress for the film 'Paper Moon'.

Who is the youngest black person to win an Oscar? ›

Cuba Gooding Jr. Youngest African-American male actor to win an Academy Award (age 29). First Black actor born in Africa (specifically in Benin) to receive an Academy Award nomination. Oldest African-American actor to win an Academy Award (age 67).

Who is the youngest person to win multiple Oscars? ›

The record is currently held by Luise Rainer, who was the first actress to win consecutive times, for “The Great Ziegfeld” (1937) and “The Good Earth” (1938) when she was 27 and 28 years old.

How many Oscar nominations does Elvis have? ›

Oscar Nominations 2023: 'Elvis' receives 8 Oscar nods, including Best Picture and Best Actor. MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - Baz Luhrmann's 2022 film “Elvis” has been nominated for eight Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Actor.

What is the cheapest movie to win an Oscar? ›

'The Hurt Locker' broke another film industry record when it bagged six Oscars out of a total of nine nominations - including the coveted Best Picture gong - as the lowest grossing movie to ever win at the Oscars.

What is the shortest short film to win an Oscar? ›

The film was nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 85th Academy Awards; at 1 minute and 40 seconds, it is the shortest film ever nominated for an Oscar.
...
Fresh Guacamole
Running time1 minute, 40 seconds long
CountryUnited States
6 more rows

What is the lowest budget film to win an Oscar? ›

United Artists' 1955 romantic drama “Marty,” starring Ernest Borgnine as an Italian-American butcher from the Bronx, won four Academy Awards including Best Picture on a budget estimated at $350,000, the lowest-ever in nominal terms.

Who won 2 Oscars in one night? ›

List of winners
NameNumberYear
Frances McDormand22020/2021
Alan Menken21989
21991
21992
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What movie won the most Oscars but not Best Picture? ›

Cabaret, Bob Fosse's adaptation of the Broadway stage musical, set a record for the most Oscars won without winning Best Picture. Best Picture winner The Godfather received only three Academy Awards.

What is the only sequel to win Best Picture? ›

Few sequels have been nominated for Best Picture and just two have won: The Godfather Part II (the film before that, The Godfather, also won the award; the third film in the installment The Godfather Part III, was nominated as well but did not win the award) and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (the films ...

What are the top 5 movies that won the most Oscars? ›

Movies with the most Oscar wins
  • The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (2003) - 11. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (Warner Bros.) ...
  • Titanic (1997) - 11. ...
  • Ben-Hur (1959) - 11. ...
  • West Side Story (1961) - 10. ...
  • The English Patient (1996) - 9. ...
  • The Last Emperor (1987) - 9.
Mar 23, 2022

What movies won top 5 Oscars? ›

Only three films have won all five of these major awards: It Happened One Night (1934), One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975), and The Silence of the Lambs (1991). Eight films failed to win any of the five major awards after being nominated in each category.

What 3 films have won 11 Oscars? ›

"Ben-Hur" (1959), "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003), and "Titanic" (1997) each received 11 Oscars.

Has any actor won 2 Oscars in a row? ›

Two actors have won two consecutive awards: Spencer Tracy – Captains Courageous (1937) and Boys Town (1938) Tom Hanks – Philadelphia (1993) and Forrest Gump (1994)

Who refused an Oscar Why? ›

Native American actress and activist Sacheen Littlefeather, who declined the best-actor award on behalf of Marlon Brando during an Oscars protest in 1973, has died aged 75, the motion picture Academy said on Monday.

Has anyone won 3 Oscars in a row? ›

Costume designer Edith Head and art director Cedric Gibbons both went three-in-a-row in the early '50s, while Tom and Jerry producer Fred Quimby managed the astounding feat of winning for four consecutive years in the '40s. (Oscar voters loved Tom and Jerry.)

Who is No 1 rich actor in world? ›

Top 10 List of Wealthiest Actors
  1. Jerry Seinfeld. Net Worth- $950 million. ...
  2. Shahrukh Khan. Net Worth- $715 million. ...
  3. Tyler Perry. Net Worth- $700 million. ...
  4. Tom Cruise. Net Worth- $570 million. ...
  5. George Clooney. Net Worth- $550 million. ...
  6. Robert De Niro. Net Worth- $500 million. ...
  7. Amitabh Bachchan. Net Worth- $455 million. ...
  8. Mel Gibbon.
1 day ago

Who is the best actor for God? ›

These actors have excelled at playing God.
  • 6 Rob Zombie — Super.
  • 5 Rodney Dangerfield — Angels with Angles.
  • 4 Whoopi Goldberg — A Little Bit of Heaven.
  • 3 Alanis Morissette — Dogma.
  • 2 George Burns — Oh God!, Oh God Book II, Oh God You Devil.
  • 1 Morgan Freeman – Bruce Almighty and Evan Almighty.
Mar 13, 2022

Who is the only actress to have won an Oscar for playing a man? ›

But 35 years ago, when Peter Weir embraced the spirit of the title “The Year of Living Dangerously” and hired an American woman to play a Chinese-Australian man in that political drama, his gamble paid off: Linda Hunt became the only person to win an Academy Award for playing a cisgender character of the opposite sex.

Who are the only two actors to win an Oscar for playing the same character? ›

After Marlon Brando won the Best Actor award for the iconic title role in The Godfather (1972), Robert De Niro won Best Supporting Actor for playing the same character in The Godfather Part II (1974).

Who is the most nominated actor of all time? ›

As of March 2022, Meryl Streep was the person with the most Oscar nominations of all time, with an impressive 21 nominations and three wins. Katherine Hepburn (1907-2003) received 12 nominations but took home one more Academy Award than Streep throughout her acting career.

Whats favored to win Best Picture? ›

2022 Oscar Odds: The Power Of The Dog Leads Best Picture Faves. The Oscar nominees are in for the 94th Academy Awards that will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on March 27 to recognize the Sportsbook of the film industry in 2021.

What should win Best Picture 2022? ›

Best picture
  1. 1. “ The Power of the Dog”
  2. 2. “ Belfast”
  3. 3. “ CODA”
  4. 4. “ West Side Story”
  5. 5. “ Dune”
  6. 6. “ King Richard”
  7. 7. “ Drive My Car”
  8. 8. “ Licorice Pizza”
Mar 24, 2022

What will win Best Picture 2022? ›

Best Picture Oscar Nominees of 2022, Ranked by Tomatometer
  • #1. Drive My Car (2021) 97% #1. ...
  • #2. CODA (2021) 94% #2. ...
  • #3. The Power of the Dog (2021) 94% #3. ...
  • #4. West Side Story (2021) 91% #4. ...
  • #5. Licorice Pizza (2021) 91% #5. ...
  • #6. King Richard (2021) 90% #6. ...
  • #7. Belfast (2021) 86% #7. ...
  • #8. Dune (2021) 83% #8.

When Oscar nominations 2023 will come? ›

What 3 westerns won Best Picture? ›

Only four Westerns have won the highest honor:
  • Cimarron (1930/31)
  • Dances With Wolves (1990)
  • Unforgiven (1992)
  • No Country For Old Men (2007) - a dramatic western crime-thriller.

Can an animation win Best Picture? ›

The very first animated film to receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars was Disney's 1991 classic Beauty and the Beast. The movie was released in the midst of the Disney Renaissance of the '90s, and it is still today considered to be one of the best animated films of all time.

Did Leaving Las Vegas win Best Picture? ›

Cage received the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama and the Academy Award for Best Actor, while Shue was nominated for the Golden Globe Award for Best Actress - Motion Picture Drama and the Academy Award for Best Actress.
...
Leaving Las Vegas
Box office$49.8 million
16 more rows

What picture won Best Picture last night? ›

cupertino, california Apple tonight made history after “CODA” landed three Academy Awards from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, with wins for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur, and Best Adapted Screenplay for Siân Heder.

Which is the only franchise to win Best Picture twice? ›

That leaves Francis Ford Coppola's gangster masterpiece as the only franchise to win the top prize twice for “The Godfather” (1972) and “The Godfather: Part II” (1974).

Who won best actress? ›

Academy Award for Best Actress in a Leading Role

What are the nominees for Best Picture this year? ›

Academy Award for Best Picture

Did Shrek win Best Picture? ›

First Non-Disney animated feature to win this category. Jeffery Katzemberg, CEO of Dreamworks at that time, pushed Shrek for a Best Picture nomination, but it only recieved Best Animated Feature and Best Adapted Sceenplay noms.

Did the social network win Best Picture? ›

Could it really go all the way? Alas, when the final two prizes arrived, The Social Network went down for the count. Tom Hooper took home the Best Director Oscar, and The King's Speech won Best Picture. And I'm still mad about it.

What movie received 11 nominations at the 55th Oscars? ›

These films had multiple nominations:
  • 11 nominations: Gandhi.
  • 10 nominations: Tootsie.
  • 9 nominations: E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial.
  • 7 nominations: Victor/Victoria.
  • 6 nominations: Das Boot and An Officer and a Gentleman.
  • 5 nominations: Sophie's Choice and The Verdict.
  • 4 nominations: Missing.
  • 3 nominations: Poltergeist.

Who will host the Academy Awards 2023? ›

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