1) Language AI will take center stage, with more startups getting funded in NLP than in any other category of AI.
Language is humanity’s most important invention. More than any other attribute, it is the defining hallmark of our species’ intelligence.
Naturally, language pervades every facet of every business activity across every sector. The ability to accurately automate language therefore opens up virtually unbounded opportunities for value creation.
The field of natural language processing (NLP) has been upended and turbocharged in the past few years by a foundational new technology known as transformers, first introduced by Google researchers in a 2017 paper. We are only now reaching the point at which this dazzingly powerful technology is mature enough to be productized and commercialized at scale. A revolution in language AI, and thus in business, is around the corner.
Venture capitalists will plow record amounts of money into NLP startups in 2022. Leading NLP startups Hugging Face (last valued at $440M) and Cohere (last valued at $200M) will both become unicorns next year.
In the months and years ahead, expect a Cambrian explosion in NLP startup innovation as entrepreneurs identify a vast array of language-based activities across the economy to optimize, automate and transform using AI.
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2) Databricks, DataRobot and Scale AI will all go public.
These three companies are among the first wave of big winners in the modern AI economy. They each provide tools and infrastructure to help other companies build AI, reflecting the common theme across technology cycles that infrastructure precedes applications.
All three companies boast astonishingly high revenue growth rates. All three raised big rounds in 2021 from “pre-IPO” investment firms, which typically invest in companies shortly before they go public: Databricks from Franklin Templeton; DataRobot from Altimeter and Tiger Global; Scale AI from Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Tiger Global.
Companies often make a high-profile CFO hire in preparation for an upcoming IPO. DataRobot announced this April that it had hired Damon Fletcher (formerly Tableau CFO) for the role. Databricks CFO Dave Conte, meanwhile, previously served as CFO of Splunk, where he took the company public in 2012. Don’t be surprised to see Scale AI make a high-profile CFO hire early in the new year.
3) At least three climate AI startups will become unicorns.
Climate tech has rapidly become one of the hottest categories in the world of startups, with record amounts of venture capital pouring into the sector this year. As previously explored in this column, opportunities abound for startups at the intersection of climate and artificial intelligence.
A number of climate AI startups have recently burst onto the scene with big funding rounds (despite limited commercial traction to date). Next year, a few of these players will ride the intensifying climate tech fervor to billion-dollar-plus valuations. The most likely unicorn candidates will be companies building tools for the new carbon economy (e.g., enterprise carbon accounting, carbon offsets infrastructure).
Potential unicorns: Cervest, ClimateAi, Gro Intelligence, Kettle, KoBold Metals, NCX, Pachama, Patch, Persefoni, Watershed
4) Powerful new AI tools will be built for video.
Video has become the dominant medium for our digital lives. Over 80% of all Internet data in 2022 will be video, according to Cisco. Every day, 7 billion videos are watched on YouTube and 100 million videos are uploaded to TikTok. From Netflix to Amazon Prime Video to Disney+ to Hulu to HBO Max and beyond, Internet streaming services’ user bases and content libraries continue to balloon.
And yet, compared to other data modalities like image and text, there has been relatively little focus to date on building deep learning-based products and capabilities specifically for video. This represents a massive market opportunity.
Expect to see a blossoming of AI tools for video in 2022, from video search to video editing to video generation. In the latter category, Synthesia’s $50M Series B raise earlier this month is a (both exciting and unnerving) sign of things to come.
5) An NLP model with over 10 trillion parameters will be built.
The field of natural language processing (NLP) today is defined by the development of ever-larger transformer-based models. This arms race will continue in 2022 (notwithstanding intriguing recent work from DeepMind on the power of smaller models).
In 2019, OpenAI’s GPT-2 became the first model with over 1 billion parameters (its 1.5 billion parameters seemed mind-bogglingly large at the time). In 2020, GPT-3 took the AI community by storm; with 175 billion parameters, it dwarfed everything that had come before it. But GPT-3’s reign as the largest AI model didn’t last long. In 2021, the trillion-parameter barrier was broken by models from Google (1.6 trillion parameters) and the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence (1.75 trillion parameters).
Expect this hockey-stick growth in the size of large language models to continue next year. There is a good chance that 2022’s largest model will come from OpenAI and be named GPT-4.
6) Collaboration and investment will all but cease between American and Chinese actors in the field of AI.
It is no secret that geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are ratcheting up, with cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence representing a particularly contentious touchpoint in the conflict. This will get worse—much worse—in 2022.
In just the past few weeks, the U.S. government added AI startup SenseTime, drone company DJI, and several other leading Chinese AI organizations to an investment blacklist. These are among the most important AI companies in China.
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is acting increasingly aggressively to prevent Chinese organizations from investing in or gaining access to U.S.-based AI technology. The influential National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), chaired by Eric Schmidt, has further fanned the flames of an AI arms race with China, for instance encouraging the U.S. government to wall off U.S. university research in AI from the Chinese.
The upshot of all this: as 2022 progresses, it will become all but impossible for American and Chinese actors—entrepreneurs, investors, corporations, business leaders, academic researchers—to meaningfully work together on AI initiatives.
7) Multiple large cloud/data platforms will announce new synthetic data initiatives.
Getting the right data is the most important and the most challenging part of building AI products today. Synthetic data offers compelling advantages over the status-quo approach of collecting and labeling real-world datasets.
Gartner has predicted that by 2024, synthetic data will account for 60% of all data used in AI development. Facebook’s acquisition of synthetic data startup AI.Reverie two months ago is a canary in the coalmine.
Next year, multiple major computing platforms will launch new synthetic data efforts as they recognize the importance of this technology to tomorrow’s AI stack and seek to attract more builders to their ecosystems.
Likely candidates: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, Unity Technologies, Scale AI
8) Toronto will establish itself as the most important AI hub in the world outside of Silicon Valley and China.
It is not an exaggeration to say that modern artificial intelligence was invented in Toronto, thanks to the work of deep learning pioneers like Geoff Hinton. Though it generates less buzz than other geographies, Toronto remains one of the most important AI hubs in the world.
It is swarming with AI talent. According to a recent CBRE report, the Toronto-Waterloo metropolitan area is the #2 largest market for technology talent in all of North America (behind only the Bay Area)—and the #1 fastest-growing. The Vector Institute, co-founded by Hinton in Toronto, is one of the largest AI research organizations in the world. From Google to Microsoft to IBM, the world’s largest tech companies have established major presences in the city in recent years.
Historically, Toronto has had a reputation as a top-notch AI research hub but a comparatively underdeveloped startup ecosystem. This is changing fast. Ada (chatbot platform), Cohere (NLP), Deep Genomics (AI for drug discovery) and Waabi (autonomous vehicles) are just a few examples of Toronto-based AI startups that have raised monster funding rounds in recent months.
Expect more world-class AI startups to emerge from Toronto in the coming year.
9) “Responsible AI” will begin to shift from a vague catch-all term to an operationalized set of enterprise practices.
AI technology is improving faster than is our ability to deploy it responsibly, ethically and equitably.
A growing movement has emerged to advocate for the responsible use of AI, led by researchers like Timnit Gebru, Joy Buolamwini and Cathy O’Neill. This push for more responsible AI spans a broad set of issues including AI bias, data provenance, model explanability and model auditability.
While awareness of these issues is growing, the topic remains sufficiently abstract that, by and large, AI practitioners do not build “responsible AI” practices into their day-to-day workflows.
2022 is the year that this will begin to change, as responsible AI practices and toolkits become productized and operationalized. These products will come both from tech giants (e.g., Microsoft, IBM) and from newer startups (e.g., Parity, Fiddler Labs). Over time, responsible AI practices will shift from “nice-to-have” efforts within forward-thinking organizations to standard practice across industries.
Regulation will provide an important impetus: see, for instance, the E.U.’s proposed Artificial Intelligence Act and New York City’s new law mandating audits for companies that use AI in hiring decisions (the first of its kind). Corporate efforts to self-regulate will also move the ball forward here. Just this month, a group of Fortune 500 companies including Walmart, Nike, General Motors and CVS announced the Data & Trust Alliance, a cross-industry consortium whose stated goal is to “detect and combat algorithmic bias.”
10) Reinforcement learning will become an increasingly important and influential AI paradigm.
The dominant approach to AI today is supervised learning, which entails collecting a lot of data, labeling it, and feeding it into an AI model so that the AI learns useful patterns about the world. Unsupervised learning, a similar approach but without the need for human-generated labels, has also begun to gain traction in recent years.
But there is another paradigm in AI, which has been around for decades but whose vast real-world potential is only starting to become clear: reinforcement learning.
In reinforcement learning, the AI is not trained on historical real-world data; it is not given the “answer key” and told what to pay attention to, as in supervised learning. Instead, it is allowed to open-endedly explore its environment, learning about the world as it goes, guided only by a particular objective that it seeks to optimize for.
Reinforcement learning powered DeepMind’s landmark AlphaGo triumph. Increasingly, it is being used by researchers and startups at the bleeding edge of AI to unlock unprecedented AI capabilities, from recommendation engines to robotics to autonomous vehicles and beyond.
Reinforcement learning may offer a path to a more sophisticated, flexible form of machine intelligence. In a provocative paper published a few months ago, DeepMind went as far as to posit that reinforcement learning, by itself, could take us all the way to “artificial general intelligence.” As the most advanced AI research organization in the world, DeepMind is worth paying attention to.
See here for our 2021 predictions (published December 2020). See here for our retrospective analysis of those 2021 predictions (published December 2021).
Note: The author is a Partner at Radical Ventures, which is an investor in ClimateAi, Cohere and Waabi.
According to Zippia, by the end of 2022, AI will create 58 million jobs. All artificial intelligence future predictions show an overwhelming increase in the implementation of AI in the business sector. The global AI market is predicted to reach $90 billion by 2025.How advanced is AI 2022? ›
AI has the potential to produce art, music, poetry, plays, and even video games. We can anticipate more complicated and “seemingly natural” creative output from our increasingly inventive and capable electronic pals in 2022 as new models like GPT-4 and Google's Brain redefine the limits of what's possible.What is the most advanced AI in existence? ›
The most advanced AI technology to date is deep learning, a technique where scientists train machines by feeding them different kinds of data. Over time, the machine makes decisions, solves problems, and performs other kinds of tasks on their own based on the data set given to them.Does artificial intelligence exist 2022? ›
73% of data and analytics decision-makers are building AI technologies and 74% seeing a positive impact in their organizations, according to Forrester's 2022 Data And Analytics Survey.What are the top 10 future applications of artificial intelligence? ›
- Personalized Shopping. ...
- AI-powered Assistants. ...
- Fraud Prevention. ...
- Administrative Tasks Automated to Aid Educators. ...
- Creating Smart Content. ...
- Voice Assistants. ...
- Personalized Learning. ...
- Autonomous Vehicles.
In twenty years, nearly all data will become digitized, making it possible to use AI for decision-making and optimization. AI and automation will replace most blue-collar work and “make” products for minimal marginal cost. Robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, delivery, design and marketing of most goods.What is the smartest AI right now? ›
Lucid.AI is the world's largest and most complete general knowledge base and common-sense reasoning engine.What Year Will AI take over? ›
Even staple figures in the field of science such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk have been vocal about technology's threat against humanity. In 2020, Musk told the New York Times that AI would grow vastly smarter than humans and would overtake the human race by 2025, adding that things would get “unstable or weird.”What is the newest AI? ›
As of December 13, 2022, ChatGPT, the new language processing AI from OpenAI, is making waves in the tech industry. The advanced model, which is trained to generate human-like text, is already being hailed as a game-changer for businesses that rely on natural language processing.What is the best AI right now? ›
- Software #1: Viso Suite Platform.
- Software #2: Content DNA Platform.
- Software #3: Jupyter Notebooks.
- Software #4: Google Cloud AI Platform.
- Software #5: Azure Machine Learning Studio.
- Software #6: Infosys Nia.
- Software #7: Salesforce Einstein.
- Software #8: Chorus.ai.
The Eos supercomputer will feature 18 'SuperPods,' each of which includes 32-DGX H100 Pods. Those 576 DGX H100 systems include 4,608 of Nvidia's new H100 GPUs, 500 Quantum-2 InfiniBand switches, and 360 NVLink switches.Is there any strong AI? ›
While there are no clear examples of strong artificial intelligence, the field of AI is rapidly innovating. Another AI theory has emerged, known as artificial superintelligence (ASI), super intelligence, or Super AI. This type of AI surpasses strong AI in human intelligence and ability.What is AI in the Bible? ›
Ai, ancient Canaanite town destroyed by the Israelites under their leader Joshua (Joshua 7–8). Biblical references agree in locating Ai (Hebrew: ha-ʿAy, “The Ruin”) just east of Bethel (modern Baytīn in the West Bank). This would make it identical with the large early Bronze Age site now called At-Tall.What is the most advanced AI in 2022? ›
While AI has been improving, the November 2022 launch of ChatGPT has been a game changer. ChatGPT is a conversational application of GPT-3, the most powerful AI system in the world, allowing you to have a natural conversation with this powerful technology.Will AI will replace humans? ›
Regardless of how well AI machines are programmed to respond to humans, it is unlikely that humans will ever develop such a strong emotional connection with these machines. Hence, AI cannot replace humans, especially as connecting with others is vital for business growth.How do you think Will AI be in the next 10 years? ›
- AI and ML will transform the scientific method. ...
- AI will become a pillar of foreign policy. ...
- AI will enable next-gen consumer experiences. ...
- Addressing the climate crisis will require AI. ...
- AI will enable truly personalized medicine. ...
- Final Thoughts.
- Customer service executives. Customer service executives don't require a high level of social or emotional intelligence to perform. ...
- Bookkeeping and data entry. ...
- Receptionists. ...
- Proofreading. ...
- Manufacturing and pharmaceutical work. ...
- Retail services. ...
- Courier services. ...
By 2030, AI will likely no longer be getting adopted with simple scenarios and applications. It will be expected to detect life-threatening diseases in the nascent stage, predict weather conditions of a large area over several months and become a digital collaborator to the human race.What will AI make possible by 2041? ›
AI will generate unprecedented wealth, revolutionize medicine and education through human-machine symbiosis, and create brand-new forms of communication and entertainment. In liberating us from routine work, however, AI will also challenge the organizing principles of our economic and social order.What will artificial intelligence be like in 50 years from now? ›
The future of AI in fifty years…
For AI to really become 'intelligent' it must acquire general intelligence – not the siloed, specific task-based intelligence it has now. To achieve general intelligence AI needs to have a human-like understanding and comprehension of multiple things.
AI can be applied to cybersecurity in a preventative and predictable way. For instance, AI prediction technology can be used to study millions of files and attacks to understand what exactly makes them up. By comprehending mathematical DNA, companies can prevent future attacks.Which country is number 1 in AI? ›
|United States of America||4||8.804|
What Is Super AI? Artificial superintelligence (ASI) is a form of AI that is capable of surpassing human intelligence by manifesting cognitive skills and developing thinking skills of its own.Who is leading in AI technology? ›
- SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) Market Capitalization: $13 Billion. ...
- Rockwell Automation, Inc. (NYSE:ROK) ...
- Baidu, Inc. ...
- Micron Technology, Inc. ...
- General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) ...
- Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) ...
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ...
- International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)
The idea of artificial intelligence overthrowing humankind has been talked about for decades, and in 2021, scientists delivered their verdict on whether we'd be able to control a high-level computer super-intelligence. The answer? Almost definitely not.What jobs AI Cannot replace? ›
Psychologists, caregivers, most engineers, human resource managers, marketing strategists, and lawyers are some roles that cannot be replaced by AI anytime in the near future”.Will AI help or hurt the world? ›
On a far grander scale, AI is poised to have a major effect on sustainability, climate change and environmental issues. Ideally and partly through the use of sophisticated sensors, cities will become less congested, less polluted and generally more livable.What are the 7 types of AI? ›
- Narrow AI or ANI.
- Artificial general intelligence or AGI.
- Strong AI or ASI.
- Reactive machines.
- Limited memory.
- Theory of mind.
But little do people know about Elon Musk's company OpenAI — an artificial intelligence (AI) research and development firm that is behind the disruptive chatbot ChatGPT.Is the last stage of AI? ›
There are three phases of AI: Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
There are many studies that show humans are productive only about 3 to 4 hours in a day. Humans also need breaks and time offs to balance their work life and personal life. But AI can work endlessly without breaks. They think much faster than humans and perform multiple tasks at a time with accurate results.Which country has the most advanced AI technology? ›
The artificial intelligence (AI) program that last year smacked down the best human player in the ancient board game Go has gotten even better. AlphaGo bested South Korean Go master Lee Sedol in part by learning from a vast catalog of example moves by humans.Are humans afraid of AI? ›
Humans are territorial in nature, meaning we like to feel in control in order to feel safe. If something is unknown to us, and therefore outside of our control, like AI, then we fear it.Can AI do what humans Cannot do? ›
Artificial intelligence is well known for solving problems and providing data-driven answers. Humans might take days and months to figure out the solution, but machines can easily do it in real-time. Unfortunately, despite its calibre, artificial intelligence can't solve puzzling questions.What will artificial intelligence look like 2050? ›
AI will treat, and largely eliminate, neurological disorders like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, most birth defects, and spinal cord injuries as well as blindness and deafness. By 2050 robotic prosthetics may be stronger and more advanced than our own biological ones and they will be controlled by our minds.What is the future of AI in 2030? ›
Experts believe that specialized AI applications will become both increasingly common and more useful by 2030, improving our economy and quality of life. On the other hand, metaverse already has us wrapped in its not so little fingers.What are the future possibilities of AI in various fields? ›
Undoubtedly, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a revolutionary field of computer science, which is ready to become the main component of various emerging technologies like big data, robotics, and IoT. It will continue to act as a technological innovator in the coming years.Will AI take over Earth? ›
No, AI will not take over the world. Movies like I, Robot are science fiction, with an emphasis on the word fiction. All that said, AI is a powerful business tool that is supporting companies and their customer service strategies. It's creating a better customer experience.Who will rule the world in 2100? ›
Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. This will truly be a new world and one we should be preparing for today.”
In all cases, the majority of participants expected AI singularity before 2060. In 2009, 21 AI experts participating the in AGI-09 conference were surveyed. Experts believe AGI will occur around 2050, and plausibly sooner.What will AI be like in 2040? ›
By 2040, AI applications, in combination with other technologies, will benefit almost every aspect of life, including improved healthcare, safer and more efficient transportation, personalized education, improved software for everyday tasks, and increased agricultural crop yields.Where is the future of AI headed? ›
As of 2022, the global AI market is valued at over $136 billion. AI industry value is projected to increase by over 13x over the next 8 years. The US AI market is forecasted to reach $299.64 billion by 2026. Gartner also tells us that customer satisfaction is expected to grow by 25% by 2023 in organization that use AI.